NAIROBI, KENYA — Despite five previous electoral setbacks, former Kenyan Prime Minister Raila Odinga is once again in the race—this time for the chairmanship of the African Union Commission (AUC). In just a few days, he will find out if his relentless pursuit of leadership will finally bear fruit.
To secure the coveted position, Raila must win the backing of at least two-thirds of the 55 African Union (AU) member states, which translates to 33 votes. If successful, he will take over from Chad’s Moussa Faki, positioning himself at the helm of Africa’s top policy-making body.
The upcoming AUC elections, set to take place in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, will see Raila face off against two strong contenders—Djibouti’s Mohamoud Youssouf and Madagascar’s Richard Randriamandrato. For months, the Kenyan statesman has been on an extensive diplomatic campaign, traveling across the continent to garner support from African leaders.
His bid has also received a significant boost from President William Ruto, who has taken an active role in lobbying for his victory. The two leaders, once fierce political rivals, have joined forces in a strategic push to win over African heads of state.
So far, an analysis of their diplomatic engagements suggests that at least 19 AU member states have pledged their support for Raila’s candidacy. These include Kenya, Togo, Gambia, Senegal, Guinea Bissau, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Equatorial Guinea, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Malawi. Others on the list are Tanzania, Uganda, Seychelles, Mauritius, Rwanda, Burundi, Algeria, South Sudan, and Eritrea.
However, Raila’s campaign team, led by Elkanah Odembo, puts the number even higher. According to Odembo, Kenya has secured commitments from at least 28 countries.
With the election fast approaching, Raila’s fate now rests in the hands of African leaders. Will this be the moment he finally claims victory? The coming days will tell.
“We still have work to do, especially given that we are determined to get the two-thirds in the first round,” Odembo told Vivid Voice News.
Under African Union (AU) regulations, the election for the African Union Commission (AUC) chairperson is conducted through a secret ballot and continues until a candidate secures a two-thirds majority.
In the last AUC election, Kenya’s nominee, Amina Mohamed, fell short after seven rounds of voting, ultimately losing to Chad’s Moussa Faki. Notably, several East African nations—including Uganda, Burundi, Djibouti, and Tanzania—chose not to back Kenya at crucial voting stages. This historical precedent raises questions about regional dynamics that could influence Raila Odinga’s chances.
Observers suggest that Kenya’s bid may face additional complications tied to President William Ruto’s handling of the ongoing crisis in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). The conflict, driven by Congolese security forces’ battles with M23 rebels, has placed the East African Community (EAC)—which Ruto currently chairs—under pressure to deliver a viable peace resolution.
Given the complexities of the DRC conflict, which involve deep-rooted political, economic, and historical factors, Ruto’s foreign policy approach could either bolster Raila’s candidacy or weaken it.
With the election drawing closer, the level of diplomatic cohesion among East African nations remains a key factor in determining Raila’s prospects for victory.
