NAIROBI, Kenya — The United Democratic Alliance (UDA) has maintained its status as Kenya’s most popular political organization, leading a competitive field as the country inches closer to the 2027 General Election.
According to the latest year-end survey by Infotrak Research & Consulting, the ruling party continues to hold a significant, though challenged, grip on national support.
UDA and ODM: The two-horse race
The survey identifies UDA as the frontrunner with 23 percent support nationally. The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) remains its primary challenger, polling at 19 percent.
This four-point gap indicates a tightening contest between the incumbent administration’s party and the veteran opposition outfit.
Beyond these two giants, the political landscape appears increasingly fragmented:
- Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP): 6%
- Jubilee Party: 5%
- Wiper Patriotic Front: 4%
A long list of other established and emerging parties—including Chama Cha Mashinani, Maendeleo Chap Chap, KANU, and Ford-Kenya—each registered 1 percent support. This suggests that while these parties remain active, their influence is currently localized or struggling to break into the national mainstream.
The silent minority: Undecided and apathetic voters
One of the most striking findings of the poll is the level of voter detachment. Combined, 32 percent of respondents do not currently align with any major political outfit:
- 16 percent remain undecided or chose not to disclose their affiliation.
- 16 percent explicitly stated they do not support any political party.
Analysts suggest this fluidity represents a massive “swing vote” that could be crucial for any party looking to consolidate power before 2027.
Technical methodology and accuracy
The findings are based on a quantitative study conducted on December 19 and 20, 2025. Infotrak utilized Computer Assisted Telephone Interviews (CATI) to reach a sample size of 1,000 adult Kenyans across all 47 counties.
The sampling was guided by the 2019 Census to ensure a proportionately representative demographic spread.
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The poll reported a margin of error of +/- 3.10 percent at a 95 percent confidence level, with an impressive response rate of 99 percent.
“Where the achieved interviews differed slightly from the intended sampled proportions per demographic group, the dataset was weighted to correct for over or under sampling thus ensuring the sample was proportionately representative of the target population,” the firm said.
To ensure high accuracy and reliability, the data was processed using SPSS 27 statistical software. The study was conducted independently to map out the current political preferences of the Kenyan electorate.
