KAMPALA, Uganda — Uganda’s military is facing growing internal tensions after at least a dozen generals and senior officers were arrested over the past 15 months in a crackdown led by army chief Gen Muhoozi Kainerugaba, intensifying speculation about the country’s increasingly contested political succession.
The arrests, involving some of the country’s most influential military commanders and former intelligence chiefs, have raised questions about whether the operation is primarily an anti-corruption campaign or part of a broader effort to consolidate Muhoozi’s influence ahead of a possible attempt to succeed his father, President Yoweri Museveni.
Muhoozi, who is also Museveni’s son, has emerged as a central figure in Uganda’s succession debate, with his growing influence over the armed forces coinciding with apparent divisions within the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) over his political future.
Museveni, 82, has ruled Uganda since 1986 and was sworn in for a seventh elected presidential term earlier this year, extending his leadership into a fifth decade.
Although Muhoozi has indicated his intention to seek the presidency in 2031, questions remain over whether the ruling party, particularly its veteran leadership, is prepared to endorse a transfer of power from father to son.
Senior military commanders caught in the crackdown
The detention of former deputy army chief Lt Gen Peter Elwelu has brought the widening military crackdown into sharp focus.
Elwelu was arrested on November 2 over allegations that he had plotted to destabilise the eastern Teso region.
His detention followed a series of extraordinary social media posts by Muhoozi, who accused the former commander of treachery, announced that he had been stripped of his three-star rank and declared him demoted to private.
“The traitor Peter Elwelu is hereby stripped of his ranks. He is demoted to Private,” Muhoozi wrote on X.
The army subsequently confirmed Elwelu’s detention, saying investigators had recovered 15 firearms, military uniforms and two pickup trucks linked to him.
However, his family has rejected the allegations, while the circumstances surrounding the public announcement of his demotion raised questions about the procedures governing military discipline.
Elwelu is among at least 12 generals and senior officers detained since April 2025, according to an investigation by Uganda’s Daily Monitor.
The list includes three former military intelligence chiefs who previously oversaw some of the country’s most sensitive security operations.
Maj Gen James Birungi, a former head of defence intelligence and security, was arrested in August 2025 over allegations including treason, terrorism and corruption. He was subsequently charged before a military court before being released after Muhoozi announced that he had forgiven him.
Another former intelligence chief, Maj Gen Abel Kandiho, was detained in September 2026 over allegations of providing false intelligence and treachery. He remains in detention.
His predecessor, Brig-Gen Charles Bakahumura, was also arrested in September over similar allegations but was later released after the army chief announced that he had forgiven him.
Other officers have faced accusations ranging from stealing military fuel to receiving money to spy on military communications.
The different cases have raised questions about the treatment of senior commanders, particularly where allegations, arrests and subsequent releases have been accompanied by public declarations from the army chief.
Anti-corruption campaign or political purge?
Uganda’s military has defended the arrests as part of efforts to eliminate corruption and criminality within the armed forces.
Security analyst Freddie David Egesa argues that the investigations involve different security agencies rather than a unilateral military operation targeting senior commanders.
He maintains that detaining high-ranking officers is necessary to protect witnesses, facilitate investigations and demonstrate that no individual is above accountability.
According to Egesa, Muhoozi has the responsibility of permitting investigations and arrests involving senior military figures in consultation with the commander-in-chief.
However, another interpretation is emerging among political observers who believe the crackdown cannot be separated from the growing debate over Museveni’s eventual successor.
Dr Gerald Bareebe, a Ugandan-born political scientist at Canada’s York University, sees a connection between the arrests and what has become known as the ‘Muhoozi Project’ — efforts to position the army chief as Uganda’s next president.
He argues that senior officers perceived to be opposed to Muhoozi’s presidential ambitions have increasingly found themselves facing detention, corruption allegations and charges including treason.
Some of the allegations, Bareebe says, are widely viewed as politically motivated, reflecting divisions within the military over the country’s future leadership.
He describes the developments as a broader purge affecting serving and retired officers considered unsupportive of Muhoozi.
The alleged divisions also expose a potentially significant fault line between the elite Special Forces Command (SFC), which Bareebe says is largely loyal to Museveni and his son, and sections of the regular army whose commanders remain unconvinced about the proposed succession.
The distinction matters because control of the security establishment could become decisive in any contested transfer of power.
Muhoozi’s political ambitions face resistance within NRM
The military crackdown is unfolding alongside growing uncertainty within the NRM over whether Muhoozi should succeed his father.
A recent meeting of the party’s senior leadership reportedly ended without agreement on a proposal to position the army chief as Museveni’s successor.
According to AFP, five party sources who attended the closed-door meeting said a vote was abandoned after several members spoke against the proposal.
Ugandan news website Kampala Dispatch, however, reported that most members who spoke supported Muhoozi’s potential presidency, although some questioned his preparedness for civilian leadership.
NRM Secretary General Richard Todwong Awany confirmed that the party held a meeting on November 10 to discuss political, social and economic issues.
He dismissed reports that the leadership had rejected a proposal to back Muhoozi as the next president, describing the claims as “completely false.”
Todwong said any party decisions would be communicated through the appropriate channels and at the appropriate time.
The competing accounts suggest that Muhoozi’s possible succession remains a sensitive subject within the ruling establishment, even as his supporters continue to promote his political ambitions.
Some party officials have reportedly questioned whether he should leave the military and take up a civilian position to acquire administrative experience before seeking the presidency.
Others have reportedly suggested that Gen Salim Saleh, Museveni’s younger brother, could be better suited to civilian leadership, although there is no indication that he intends to seek the presidency.
The debate points to a succession question that extends beyond Muhoozi’s popularity or military standing: whether the NRM’s established political structures are willing to accept a leadership transition organised around the president’s family.
Government spokesperson Allan Kasujja has dismissed claims of a succession fallout as “hogwash”.
Threats against Vice-President Alupo expose widening political tensions
Muhoozi’s increasingly direct involvement in civilian political affairs has added another dimension to the uncertainty.
On the night of November 9, the army chief turned his attention to Vice-President Jessica Alupo, questioning her loyalty and suggesting that he should take over her position.
“Whoever is in that office should prepare to hand it over soon,” he wrote in posts on X that were subsequently deleted.
He also threatened Alupo with dismissal and possible arrest, suggesting that the government would operate “on military terms” if he became his father’s deputy.
The comments attracted attention because they appeared to challenge the authority of a senior civilian government official while coming from a serving army chief.
Muhoozi’s X account, which had nearly 1.4 million followers, became inaccessible the following day. It was unclear whether he had deactivated it himself, as he had done previously, or whether the platform had suspended it.
Alupo remains in office and has not publicly responded to the threats.
Unlike previous Ugandan army chiefs, who largely communicated through official military channels, Muhoozi has developed a controversial public profile through frequent social media interventions.
His posts have targeted government officials, senior military figures and political opponents, occasionally generating diplomatic controversy.
While Egesa views the posts as part of Muhoozi’s preferred communication style, Bareebe considers them evidence of an attempt to extend military influence into civilian political institutions.
The confrontation with Alupo illustrates how the succession debate is increasingly moving beyond military circles and into the heart of Uganda’s government.
The Special Forces Command factor
At the centre of the succession debate is the military’s role in determining who eventually takes over from Museveni.
Muhoozi was appointed army chief in March 2024 after previously commanding the Special Forces Command, an elite military unit responsible for protecting the president and strategic installations.
Under Uganda’s military structure, he reports directly to Museveni, giving him considerable influence over the armed forces.
Bareebe argues that the SFC’s loyalty to the president and his son could become particularly important during any future transfer of power.
He maintains that the regular army has increasingly been sidelined as the elite unit assumes a more prominent position in the country’s security architecture.
Also Read: Museveni proposes son Muhoozi as successor at NRM NEC meeting
His assessment raises concerns about the concentration of military influence within an institution closely associated with the presidential family.
If the succession question becomes contested, the loyalties of senior commanders could prove just as important as the political calculations within the NRM.
The military has historically been central to Museveni’s hold on power, making any perceived divisions within its senior ranks especially significant.
The possibility of a political dynasty extending into another generation has also attracted attention following the graduation of Muhoozi’s son, Ruhamya, from Britain’s Sandhurst military academy.
Uganda’s succession question remains unresolved
The debate over Muhoozi’s political future is unfolding against a broader backdrop of pressure on the opposition.
Veteran opposition politician Kizza Besigye remains in detention on treason charges, which he denies, while Bobi Wine, who came second to Museveni in this year’s presidential election, has gone into exile in the United States after facing threats from Muhoozi.
The government has consistently defended its security operations as lawful and necessary to maintain national stability.
However, the combination of arrests involving senior military commanders, public threats against government officials and competing accounts of divisions within the ruling party has intensified scrutiny of Uganda’s political direction.
For Museveni, the challenge is not simply identifying a potential successor but managing a transition that preserves the loyalty of the military and the unity of the ruling party.
For Muhoozi, military influence and growing political mobilisation through the Patriotic League of Uganda may provide a foundation for his ambitions, but they do not automatically guarantee acceptance within the country’s established political leadership.
The NRM’s reluctance to publicly settle the succession question also suggests that the proposed transfer of power may face resistance from within the very political establishment that has sustained Museveni’s rule for decades.
For now, Museveni remains firmly in power, but the growing tensions surrounding his son are exposing the uncertainties beneath Uganda’s political succession debate.
The central question is no longer simply whether Muhoozi wants to become president. It is whether Uganda’s military, ruling party and political institutions will accept the way he hopes to get there.
