NAIROBI, Kenya — The Kenya Meteorological Service Authority (KMSA) has forecast rainfall across the majority of the country’s counties between 15 and 21 September, as Kenya steps up preparedness ahead of the October-December (OND) short-rains season.
According to KMSA’s latest weekly forecast, rainfall is expected in parts of Baringo, Bomet, Bungoma, Busia, Elgeyo Marakwet, Embu, Garissa, Homa Bay, Kajiado, Kakamega, Kericho, Kiambu, Kilifi, Kirinyaga, Kisii, Kisumu, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Machakos, Makueni, Mandera, Marsabit, Meru, Migori and Mombasa counties. Additional counties expected to see rain include Murang’a, Nairobi, Nakuru, Nandi, Narok, Nyamira, Nyandarua, Nyeri, Siaya, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Tharaka-Nithi, Trans Nzoia, Uasin Gishu, Vihiga, Wajir and West Pokot.
Sunny intervals are expected in the afternoons across most of Isiolo, Mandera, Marsabit, Samburu, Turkana and Wajir counties.
KMSA urged Kenyans to use the available weather information to plan ahead, protect lives and livelihoods, and take precautionary action before weather-related hazards materialise, describing the current period as a critical preparedness window ahead of the OND season.
“The window for preparedness ahead of the OND season is now,” the authority said, calling on communities and government agencies alike to act on available forecasts rather than wait for hazards to occur.
A review of weather conditions between 7 and 13 September found that most parts of the country remained dry, though rainfall was recorded in a handful of counties, notably Busia, Kisii, Kilifi, Mombasa and Kwale.
The highest seven-day rainfall total, 120.7mm, was recorded at the Busia Ministry of Water Office rainfall station, while the Mtwapa Meteorological Station logged the highest single-day total of 77.1mm on 11 September.
KMSA noted that rainfall amounts increased at most stations that received rain, compared with the previous review period of 31 August to 6 September.
The authority also forecast daytime maximum average temperatures above 30°C in several counties, including Kilifi, Tana River, Lamu, Garissa, Wajir, Isiolo, Marsabit and Turkana.
At the other end of the scale, night-time minimum average temperatures below 10°C are expected in parts of Meru, Tharaka-Nithi, Kirinyaga, Murang’a, Nyeri, Nakuru, Narok, Taita Taveta and Kajiado.
The weekly forecast comes as Kenya braces for what KMSA describes as an enhanced OND short-rains season this year, with the latest seasonal outlook projecting above-average rainfall and isolated storms across much of the country.
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The authority says the season is expected to be fairly to well distributed in most areas, with the exception of Turkana and Samburu, where distribution is forecast to be poor to fair.
“This season will be marked by prolonged wet spells and occasional isolated storms over several parts of the country,” KMSA said.
The seasonal outlook has been linked to a strengthening El Niño weather pattern in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific, which meteorologists say is expected to enhance rainfall across the region, with the potential for flooding and landslides in areas that receive the heaviest downpours.
KMSA has urged national and county governments, disaster-response agencies, farmers and the general public to use the coming weeks to prepare drainage systems, secure vulnerable infrastructure and put contingency plans in place ahead of the season’s onset.
