KAMPALA, Uganda — Uganda’s economy continues to show “remarkable resilience and dynamism” and is set for a major growth acceleration as the country prepares to begin commercial oil production, Finance Minister Henry Musasizi has said.
Presenting the FY 2026/27 National Budget at Kololo Ceremonial Grounds on Thursday, Musasizi said Uganda’s economic fundamentals remain strong despite global geopolitical tensions, trade disruptions and uncertainty in international markets.
He said growth for the 2025/26 financial year is estimated at 6.4 percent, up from 6.3 percent the previous year, while the economy is projected to reach about $69.3 billion (Shs250.4 trillion) by June 2026.
In purchasing power parity (PPP) terms, Uganda’s Gross Domestic Product is estimated at $197.1 billion, with GDP per capita projected at $1,420 (about Shs5.1 million per person).
Oil production expected to trigger double-digit growth
Musasizi said the economy is projected to expand sharply to 10.2 percent in FY 2026/27, driven largely by the start of commercial oil production.
He said this would mark Uganda’s return to double-digit growth for the first time since the structural economic reforms of the 1990s.
“This will mark Uganda’s first return to double-digit growth since the reforms of the 1990s,” he said.
He added that stronger growth would translate into job creation, higher household incomes and expanded public investment in education, healthcare, infrastructure and security.
Exports surge driven by gold and coffee
The Finance Minister highlighted strong export performance as a key driver of growth, noting that exports of goods and services have risen by about 204 percent over the last five years.
Total export earnings reached $18.04 billion in the 12 months to March 2026, compared to $5.93 billion in the same period in 2022.
Key export commodities include gold, coffee, cocoa, fish products, steel, sugar and manufactured goods.
Coffee alone generated $2.46 billion, up from $1.84 billion the previous year, underscoring agriculture’s continued role in foreign exchange earnings.
Jobs rise in formal and informal sectors
Musasizi also pointed to significant gains in employment, particularly in the formal private sector.
He said jobs in private formal establishments increased by 245 percent, rising from 672,300 workers in FY 2016/17 to more than 2.3 million workers in FY 2024/25.
Uganda currently has more than 503,000 public sector employees and about 10.5 million people in the informal sector, which remains the dominant source of employment.
“This growth in jobs confirms that Uganda’s economy is not only growing but also creating productive employment for Ugandans,” he said.
Revenue growth and fiscal outlook
Domestic revenue collections are projected to increase from Shs35.7 trillion in FY 2025/26 to Shs45.6 trillion in FY 2026/27, equivalent to 15.9 percent of GDP.
The additional revenue will finance priority sectors including agro-industrialisation, tourism, mineral-based industrialisation, science and innovation, and infrastructure development.
Debt position remains stable, says government
Musasizi said Uganda’s total public debt stood at $34.86 billion (Shs126.19 trillion) as of December 2025.
External debt accounts for $15.84 billion, while domestic debt stands at $19.02 billion, placing the debt-to-GDP ratio at about 53 percent.
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Despite rising debt levels, he said the government considers Uganda’s debt sustainable, arguing that borrowing has been directed toward long-term productive investments such as roads, energy, water systems, industrial parks and digital infrastructure.
Long-term economic transformation agenda
The FY 2026/27 budget is anchored on the theme: “Full Monetisation of Uganda’s Economy through Commercial Agriculture, Industrialisation, Expanding and Broadening Services, Digital Transformation and Market Access.”
Government says the plan aligns with its Tenfold Growth Strategy, which targets transforming Uganda into a $500 billion economy in the long term.
Economists, however, continue to caution that sustaining high growth will depend on diversification, macroeconomic stability and effective management of oil revenues once production begins.
