GENEVA, Switzerland — The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned that El Niño conditions are emerging in the tropical Pacific Ocean, raising the likelihood of widespread extreme weather events across the globe in the coming months.
In its latest El Niño/La Niña Update released in Geneva, the UN weather agency said there is an 80 per cent probability that El Niño conditions will develop between June and August 2026, with the likelihood rising to more than 90 per cent by November if current trends persist.
The warning signals heightened risks of flooding, drought, heatwaves and other climate extremes, driven by abnormal ocean warming in the Pacific.
According to the WMO, unusually warm sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific are now approaching El Niño thresholds, supported by strong subsurface heat anomalies.
Scientists observed subsurface waters exceeding 6°C above average, creating a significant reservoir of heat that is now contributing to surface warming.
The Southern Oscillation Index, which measures atmospheric pressure patterns linked to El Niño, is also showing early signals consistent with a developing event.
“Warm ocean waters are fueling the development of El Niño. El Niño typically increases global temperatures and drives more extreme weather and rainfall patterns, and above-average temperatures are forecast nearly everywhere for June to August,” the WMO said.
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon that disrupts normal weather patterns across the world. It is associated with increased global temperatures and shifting rainfall systems.
Typically, the event triggers heavier rainfall and flooding in parts of South America, the Horn of Africa and sections of central Asia, while causing drought conditions in regions such as Australia, Indonesia, Central America and parts of southern Asia.
The WMO warned that the developing system could intensify climate-related disasters already being amplified by global warming.
United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres urged governments to act swiftly, warning that El Niño would compound the effects of an already warming planet.
“The science is clear: El Niño is arriving on our doorstep in the coming months with 90 per cent certainty. The world must treat it as the urgent climate warning it is,” Guterres said.
“El Niño conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world. Impacts will hit even harder, travel even farther, and cross borders with devastating speed.”
He called for accelerated climate action, expanded renewable energy use, stronger protection for vulnerable populations, and improved early warning systems.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said global systems should prepare for a potentially moderate to strong El Niño event.
“We need to prepare for a potentially strong El Niño event, which will exacerbate drought and heavy rainfall and increase the risk of heatwaves both on land and in the ocean,” she said.
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Saulo noted that the most recent El Niño in 2023–2024 ranked among the five strongest on record and contributed to record global temperatures in 2024.
The WMO stressed that early forecasting and preparedness systems will be critical in reducing human and economic losses.
Governments, humanitarian agencies, and key sectors such as agriculture, health, water management and energy have been urged to begin contingency planning immediately.
While each El Niño event differs in intensity and impact, experts say early action significantly reduces the scale of damage, particularly in vulnerable regions already facing climate stress.
