KAMPALA, Uganda — For supporters of Uganda’s long-serving President Yoweri Museveni, his decisive victory in the just-concluded presidential election is seen as a fresh endorsement of a rule that began nearly four decades ago.
According to official results, Mr Museveni secured about 71.65% of the vote, close to his highest-ever share of 74% in the country’s first direct presidential election in 1996.
At 81, the win reinforces his long-held claim that he continues to command the backing of a broad majority of Ugandans, decades after seizing power as a rebel leader in 1986 and ending the Milton Obote era.
Yet the outcome has once again exposed deep political divisions.
His closest challenger, opposition leader and former pop star Robert Kyagulanyi, popularly known as Bobi Wine, rejected the results as “fake,” saying he went into hiding after security forces raided his home. The government has not publicly responded to the allegation.
A campaign anchored in stability and continuity
Throughout the campaign, Mr Museveni leaned heavily on his record, portraying himself as a steady hand in a turbulent global environment.
He argued that his leadership had delivered relative political stability and gradual economic growth, and pledged to guide Uganda into middle-income status by 2030.
Central to that vision is Uganda’s emerging oil sector. On the campaign trail, the president repeatedly told voters that oil exports would transform the economy, promising rapid growth once production begins. His government has set October as the target for the first crude exports through a 1,443-kilometre pipeline to Tanzania’s Indian Ocean port of Tanga.
Despite questions surrounding his age, Mr Museveni sought to project vigour and authority. At one of his final rallies, he told supporters he had traversed all of Uganda’s more than 140 constituencies during the campaign.
However, the abrupt cancellation of several campaign events in early October, officially attributed to unspecified “state duties,” fuelled renewed speculation about his health. Subsequent gaps in his public schedule only deepened those concerns, though no official medical explanation was offered.
Bobi Wine setback and contested legitimacy
For Mr Kyagulanyi, the election marked a significant reversal. His share of the vote dropped from 35% in the previous election to 24.72%, despite Uganda’s overwhelmingly young population, long regarded as the backbone of his political appeal.
From his perspective, the vote lacked credibility. He maintains that the campaign environment was neither free nor fair, citing repeated disruptions of his rallies by security forces, including the use of tear gas and live ammunition. Some supporters were reportedly killed during campaign-related confrontations.
He has also alleged ballot stuffing, though he has not provided evidence to substantiate the claims, and authorities have not commented.
After two unsuccessful presidential bids, questions now surround Mr Kyagulanyi’s political future. Some analysts warn that he risks joining a growing list of African opposition figures whose popular appeal has been steadily eroded through sustained state pressure, leaving them politically marginalised.
During the campaign, the contrast between the two leading contenders was stark. Mr Kyagulanyi channelled the frustration and urgency of a youthful electorate, while Mr Museveni cast himself as a seasoned patriarch, the guarantor of order and continuity. According to the disputed official results, voters ultimately chose the latter.
Beyond the ballot: Succession and power realignment
Much of the post-election debate has focused on the question of succession; when, and how, Mr Museveni might eventually leave office. Ugandan journalist and political analyst Allan Kasujja urges caution against viewing change solely through that lens.
“Change in Uganda, especially political change, does not, and almost certainly will not, happen suddenly,” Kasujja says.
“It happens gradually, and that process has been under way for some time.”
Seen this way, the election appears less a moment of rupture than a reaffirmation of a political system already undergoing internal transformation, particularly within the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) and the state institutions it dominates.
Also Read: Museveni wins again: What the 2026 vote means for Uganda
Those shifts became increasingly visible following a cabinet reshuffle in March 2023 and were thrown into sharper relief during the August 2025 elections for the NRM’s powerful Central Executive Committee. Far from a routine internal exercise, the contest evolved into a struggle over positioning in a post-Museveni order.
The process was marked by intense factional bargaining and allegations of widespread inducements, revealing a ruling party increasingly consumed by succession politics rather than competition with an opposition weakened by repression or co-optation.
It also underscored the growing influence of the army chief, Gen Muhoozi Kainerugaba, the president’s son and a figure widely viewed as a potential successor.
Veteran members of the party’s old guard were sidelined, replaced by newer figures, many lacking liberation-era credentials but regarded as loyal to Gen Kainerugaba.
According to sources close to the presidency, authority within State House has become more decentralised, with decisions once made directly by Mr Museveni now flowing through a close-knit inner circle of relatives and long-time allies.
His eldest daughter, Natasha Karugire, is said to oversee his daily schedule. His half-brother, Gen Salim Saleh, manages relations with senior military figures and foreign dignitaries, while trade and economic policy are heavily influenced by his son-in-law, Odrek Rwabwogo. All security matters; internal and external, now fall under the command of Gen Kainerugaba, Uganda’s chief of defence forces.
In a country where military power has long shaped political outcomes, and where the president himself rose through armed struggle, this concentration of authority carries significant implications.
It suggests that Uganda’s future direction is already being shaped, and increasingly controlled, by Mr Museveni’s son, even if he does not yet hold the title of head of state.
