SIRONKO, Uganda — Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) presidential candidate Nathan Nandala Mafabi delivered a measured but notable performance in his home region of Bugisu during the January 15 presidential election, finishing second across most districts despite President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni’s commanding regional lead.
Mafabi, the long-serving Member of Parliament (MP) for Budadiri West County in Sironko District in the Eastern Region of Uganda and chairperson of the Bugisu Co-operative Union (BCU), drew on deep personal, political and economic ties to the coffee-growing sub-region.
His campaign messaging centred on farmer welfare, value addition in agriculture, cooperative revival and anti-corruption, themes that resonate strongly in Bugisu, where coffee remains the backbone of household incomes.
A trained economist with prior experience at the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, Mafabi positioned himself as a technocrat offering an alternative development model rooted in cooperative economics and accountable governance.
Bugisu: An opposition-leaning battleground
The Bugisu sub-region, which comprises seven districts and had 843,975 registered voters across 2,217 polling stations, has historically been competitive terrain for opposition candidates.
By the sixth declaration of provisional results, six districts had fully tallied results, with only 37 of 266 polling stations in Bududa District yet to report.
According to provisional figures released by the Electoral Commission (EC), Museveni led the sub-region with 273,724 votes (61.24%) of the 446,961 valid votes counted.
Mafabi followed with 102,004 votes (22.82%), ahead of National Unity Platform (NUP) leader Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu (Bobi Wine), who polled 66,711 votes (14.93%).
District-level performance
A closer look at district-level results underscores Mafabi’s regional foothold:
- In Bulambuli District, Mafabi secured 15,275 votes (30.12%), trailing Museveni’s 30,840 votes (60.8%).
- In Sironko District, his parliamentary base, Mafabi polled 27,010 votes (29.98%), behind Museveni’s 53,549 votes (59.43%).
- In Budadiri West, which Mafabi has represented since 2001, he garnered 13,853 votes (29%), compared with Museveni’s 28,223 votes. Bobi Wine placed third with 5,385 votes (11.27%).
Mafabi’s sole sub-county win came in Buwalasi, where he narrowly edged Museveni with 1,043 votes (45.37%) against 1,007 votes (43.8%).
Urban dynamics and anomalies
In Mbale City, voting patterns diverged from the rural trend. Museveni led with 34,183 votes, followed by Bobi Wine on 25,238 votes, while Mafabi placed third with 8,402 votes. This marked the only area in Bugisu where Mafabi trailed the NUP candidate.
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Concerns were raised in Manafwa District, where the EC results portal indicated complete tallying from all 265 polling stations, yet detailed scrutiny suggested no votes had been reported from Bubulo County West. Electoral Commission staff, including the spokesperson, declined to comment, citing internal protocols that reserve explanations for commission members.
Nationally, provisional tallies continue to show President Museveni maintaining a substantial lead as more results are counted.
Bobi Wine remains in second place countrywide, with Mafabi trailing further behind outside his regional stronghold.
While the Bugisu outcome did not alter the national balance, analysts say Mafabi’s performance underscores the enduring relevance of regional identity, cooperative economics and local leadership in Uganda’s electoral politics.
