DAR ES SALAAM, Tanzania — President Samia Suluhu Hassan is poised to secure her first presidential mandate in Wednesday’s election, a vote many observers describe less as a competitive contest and more as a guaranteed coronation.
The outcome is largely attributed to the effective removal of all heavyweight opposition candidates from the ballot.
The 65-year-old leader, who became Tanzania’s first female head of state following the death of President John Magufuli in 2021, initially brought a significant change in political atmosphere.
Magufuli was known for his firm anti-corruption drive but faced heavy criticism for his authoritarian approach, clampdown on dissent, and controversial stance on the COVID-19 pandemic.
The turn from reform to repression
Upon taking office, President Samia, previously the Vice-President, adopted a warmer, friendlier style and initiated a stark policy departure from her predecessor. Her “Four Rs” policy—”reconciliation, resilience, reform and rebuilding”—successfully reopened the East African nation to foreign investors, restored relations with donors, and mollified institutions like the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank.
Political analyst Mohammed Issa acknowledged the immediate impact of these early efforts: “She made a difference, the lost relationship between Tanzania and international organisations such as World Bank was restored,” Issa told the BBC.
However, over the last two years, critics say the political space has severely contracted. Reports of abductions and killings targeting opposition voices and government critics are now allegedly more ruthless than they were under Magufuli. This shift in approach has led to a change in public perception.
“Samia came in with a conciliatory tone, but now she has become bold and makes tough decisions that many did not expect from her,” said Mr Issa. “She is now widely blamed for some things like abductions, killings, repression of opposition and other issues on security.”
This is reflected in international assessments: US-based human rights group Freedom House downgraded Tanzania from “partly free” in 2020 to “not free” last year. The government has offered no comment on these serious allegations.
Opposition barred and boycotting
Although the ruling party, CCM, has won every election since the return to multi-party democracy in 1992, previous campaigns featured robust debate. This election, however, is dramatically different.
While the electoral commission cleared 17 presidential candidates, the main opposition party, Chadema, has been effectively neutralized. Its leader, Tundu Lissu, is currently on trial for treason after calling for electoral reforms earlier this year. The party is now urging its supporters to boycott the poll entirely.
Chadema’s deputy leader, John Heche, who was arrested last week, was scathing about the president’s policy shifts just before his detention: “Yes, rallies were allowed again, but today Chadema can’t do its mandate because the promises were fake.”
Similarly, Luhana Mpina, a presidential hopeful from the second largest opposition party, ACT Wazalendo, was disqualified twice, leaving only smaller, non-competitive parties in the race.
“The ruling party’s control, exclusion of the opposition and institutional bias undermine electoral credibility. Limited civic space and low voter engagement further weaken inclusiveness,” stated political analyst Nicodemus Minde in a report for the Institute for Security Studies (ISS).
This has left many potential voters disheartened. Dar es Salaam resident Godfrey Lusana articulated a widespread sentiment: “We do not have an election without a strong opposition. The electoral system is not independent. We already know who will win. I can’t waste time to vote.” He added: “If the electoral commission was really independent, I would have voted.”
‘Mama Samia’ and the youth divide
The situation on the mainland stands in stark contrast to the buzzing campaign atmosphere on the semi-autonomous archipelago of Zanzibar, which will elect its own regional president.
On the mainland, President Samia has embraced her nickname “Mama Samia,” capitalizing on her motherly, dialogue-driven approach to promise widespread development. Many women, particularly in rural areas, view her as a stabilizing force.
First-time voter Queen Castoric from Tanga praised the president’s symbolic impact: “She brings dignity, we young women look up to her. We feel her presence as the president and that gives us confidence that we can be reliable to our communities now and in the future,” she told the BBC.
However, younger, urban voters are more skeptical. Celina Ponsiana, a first-time voter in Dar es Salaam, expressed reservations: “Leadership isn’t only about tone. I believe the president has a task to do, first on unemployment. She has been supporting some but many still need help.”
Young people constitute the majority of Tanzania’s 37.7 million registered voters. There is growing anger among them over the administration’s silence on issues like the reported abductions and a sense of growing corruption that has led some to view the Magufuli era with nostalgia.
The power of the Mtandao
President Samia’s increasingly tough stance is believed to be a response to both internal and external pressures.
In a traditionally male-dominated political arena, she has been asserting her authority, recently reminding voters: “Don’t forget I am chief of the defence forces.”
Also Read: Tanzania bars opposition presidential candidate from polls, leaving Samia Samia unchallenged
Furthermore, analysts suggest she may be influenced by a powerful network of business tycoons and influential CCM backers, colloquially known as Mtandao. Magufuli reportedly resisted this powerful group, preferring his own agenda.
“Internal [CCM] party democracy has been stifled through an orchestrated move to make President Samia the sole candidate. While this has deepened divisions within the party, a façade of unity is being presented to the public,” Mr. Minde wrote, suggesting that the “Mtandao” may have helped quash internal opposition, including the mysterious abduction of senior party member Humphrey Polepole after he criticized her candidacy.
Analysts warn that this prevailing climate of fear, characterized by media self-censorship and a retreat of public debate to private spheres, risks hollowing out Tanzania’s democracy.
For activist Tito Magoti, the demands for democratic reform remain fundamental: “We want a free Tanzania where anyone has the freedom to speak,” he told this publication. “The freedom of movement and the freedom to do anything they wish.”
