The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) has approved the withdrawal of three member states currently governed by military juntas but extended a six-month grace period for them to reconsider their decision.
Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have announced plans to exit the bloc in January 2025, rejecting ECOWAS’ demands to restore democratic governance. The decision marks a significant setback for ECOWAS, which was established in 1975 to foster economic and political integration in West Africa.
These three countries were among the founding members, making their departure a symbolic and practical blow to the bloc, once regarded as Africa’s leading trade organization.
ECOWAS citizens currently enjoy the right to live, work, and trade freely across member states. However, it remains unclear if these privileges will extend to the departing nations.
While ECOWAS has yet to announce specific measures, the ECOWAS Commission in Abuja has been tasked with addressing the implications of this shift and defining the future relationship between the two entities.
Emergence of the alliance of Sahel States
In response to their pending withdrawal, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have formed a new bloc, the Alliance of Sahel States (AES).
Over the weekend, AES leaders announced visa-free travel and residency rights for ECOWAS citizens, emphasizing a spirit of friendship and a commitment to preserving long-standing ties among African nations.
Despite these conciliatory gestures, the three landlocked states face significant economic challenges.
Historically, migration has flowed predominantly from these countries toward the wealthier coastal nations within ECOWAS. AES leaders acknowledged this dynamic but affirmed their commitment to maintaining cordial relations.
Grace period for reconsideration
During an ECOWAS summit held in Nigeria, leaders expressed respect for the Sahel nations’ decision but offered a transitional window between January 29 and July 29, 2025, during which the three states could rejoin the bloc if they reconsider their stance.
Senegal’s President Bassirou Diomaye Faye and Togo’s Faure Gnassingbé have been designated to lead ongoing negotiations aimed at bridging the divide.
Nevertheless, the juntas remain firm. Following a ministerial meeting in Niamey, the capitals of the departing states jointly declared their decision as “irreversible.”
This move underscores deep tensions that have characterized relations since military coups occurred in Niger (July 2023), Burkina Faso (2022), and Mali (2020).
ECOWAS had suspended the countries following their coups, urging a return to civilian rule, but these calls have gone unheeded.
Strategic and demographic impact
The departure of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger would reduce ECOWAS’ total population by 76 million, leaving the bloc with 370 million people and significantly shrinking its geographical footprint. The loss also weakens regional efforts to enhance economic and security cooperation, as well as the bloc’s overall unity.
ECOWAS Commission President Omar Touray described the impending exit as “disheartening” at the summit’s opening session, while commending mediation efforts. Meanwhile, AES Chairman and Mali’s military leader Assimi Goïta reiterated that ECOWAS citizens would retain their rights to “enter, circulate, reside, establish, and leave” AES territories, signaling a willingness to maintain ties despite the schism.
Shifting alliances
The Sahel countries’ decision to leave ECOWAS reflects a growing geopolitical shift. The juntas accuse ECOWAS of aligning too closely with Western powers and have increasingly turned to Russia for military and strategic support. This pivot is seen as part of their strategy to combat jihadist insurgencies destabilizing the region.
Despite ECOWAS’ condemnation of the coups, its inability to restore civilian rule has led to strained relations, further complicating prospects for reconciliation. The bloc’s leaders now face the critical task of addressing the fallout from these exits while striving to uphold regional stability and cooperation.
